India Research Paper

India Research Paper-45
The second is growth in productivity, and the third is improvement in product quality.What Arvind has done is that the indicators he has used are all volume indicators, and having done that, he has said they were very strongly correlated prior to 2011 but not after that period.”He went to pick many more technical holes in Mr Subramanian’s paper.But while for Wall Street there was a clear and specific reason – income, wealth and livelihood, in India it was a case of ‘monkey see, monkey do’.

The second is growth in productivity, and the third is improvement in product quality.What Arvind has done is that the indicators he has used are all volume indicators, and having done that, he has said they were very strongly correlated prior to 2011 but not after that period.”He went to pick many more technical holes in Mr Subramanian’s paper.But while for Wall Street there was a clear and specific reason – income, wealth and livelihood, in India it was a case of ‘monkey see, monkey do’.

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This is what has happened after 2011 when the government started raising indirect tax rates back to the pre-2009 level.

The new method — GDP at market prices — has merely captured that increase. GDP growth rates also measure the changes in value addition in production of manufacturing and services.

Their jobs and wealth depended on advance knowledge because basically they are all gambling.

Over the next ten years, this led to the creation of an entire industry of GDP growth forecasters.

It is very nearly a case of what is called GIGO – garbage in, garbage out.

It was this realisation that led to the changes made since 2011 -- of relying on differently collected data with less scope for the errors of the past.

Then in the 1990s, Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, unleashed his policy of keeping the price of financial assets high.

This led to investors who were buyers in the market to demand more precise estimates of the growth rate of GDP.

For example, what happens to the Indian GDP growth rate when the price of imported crude oil increases? But what’s the use of econometrics to find out what any shopkeeper can tell you for free?

Doubtless there will be an inconclusive war of words now. The background Until 1993, no one much cared for GDP estimates because everyone knew how vague they were, intended more to point to the direction of total output than its precise rate of growth.

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